Gartner says blogging to peak... I say it makes sense
Gartner today predicted that blogging will peak next year and then level off, with people basically coming and going from it.
That makes complete sense. That doesn't mean blogging is ineffective, but blogging is just one part of the broader concept of "Open Communications." It's just one part of a broader communications flow that involves consumers generating their own information. Blogging may peak, but podcasting, video blogging and even concepts like Second Life will continue to grow.
Also, you're going to see blogging concepts, like commenting, continue to cement themselves in traditional media. Just ask Conan O'Brien how effective these concepts can be. If a comedy show is taking ideas from viewers, then it's not about "blogging," but about an open dialog.
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Andy Budd wrote a great post about the six stages of technological acceptance. Here are the six stages.
http://www.andybudd.com/archives/2005/10/the_six_stages_of_technological_acceptance/
Blissful Ignorance - People seem to start in a state of blissful ignorance. They are not aware of what is going on around them and frankly don’t care.
Denial - People have heard about this new technology, but it’ll never take off and its not something they will ever need to know.
Anger - People don’t get why everybody else thinks the technology is interesting and they don’t, so they get angry.
Acceptance - Finally people come to the conclusion that if enough people think the technology is interesting, they better start learning about it or risk being left behind.
Understanding - The light-bulb goes on and people start to get why the new technology is so interesting.
Enthusiasm - People get good at the new ways of thinking and actually start getting other people interested in the technology.
With only about 45 of the fortune 500 currently blogging, I think that blogging is still in the denial and anger stage for the majority of companies. Now if we look at the technology industry we are in the enthusiasm stage.
I believe Gartner is wrong, and that there is more blogging to come, certainly more integration of blogging ideas into existing websites.
Heather Green at BusinessWeek went through this interesting exercise in which she tried to describe to her non-technical family what a blog actually is. She found it to be difficult and frustrating.
I had a similar experience with a finance person about a year ago.
I think Gartner may be partially correct. That is, people with blogs like this one will level off. However, the same tools will start to permeate most online media. So a "blog" will not be distinguishable from a corporate Web site.
Even Fortune 500 sites.
You have more blog like tools on lots of new social media websites. YouTube is a good example, except besides text, users communciate through videos.
I am still not convinced that we have seen all the growth that there is going to be from blogging, however.
Well predictions are made, and then we can review them next year.
John,
I think we're actually agreeing on this one. But it's not just new media sites that will have these tools. Take a look at BusinessWeek, you can comment on nearly every article posted.
That's part of blogging, but you'd never call th main BusinessWeek site a "blog."
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